Role Of Models In Coal Supply Analysis

The Electric Power Research Institute Energy Supply Program is developing coal supply forecasts. By coal supply forecasts I mean the future relationships between coal price and production levels. A representative supply curve is shown in Figure l. It will make the rest of my presentation clearer if at this point I give you some background about EPRI and the Energy Supply Program. EPRI is funded by the nation's electric utility industry to develop new technologies for the production and conservation of electricity. Most of the research is conducted by outside contractors. We participate in joint projects with the Department of Energy and other organizations. The Energy Supply Program is one of three "economic" programs. The other two are Energy Demand and Conservation, and Systems. The Systems Program's main function is to provide the means to integrate the output of the other two Programs. The primary function of the "economic" programs is to provide information pertaining to future energy prices, availability, requirements, etc. to the EPRI personnel planning R&D programs. A secondary role that is becoming more and more important is providing information of direct use to the electric utility industry. I should note that the results of all EPRI's contract work are available to the general public. A "Coal Supply Analysis System" is being developed for EPRI by Charles River Associates. To the extent possible it will draw upon existing work, but much additional work needs to be done in the area of coal supply economics.