A Statistical Approach for Deriving Project Design Rainfall

A frequent challenge in mine water management and mine design is estimation of precipitation and extreme rainfall given a short record of site meteorological data. For remote mine projects, typically only a few years of rainfall data are available, which is far too short for estimation of design rainfall event, such as the 1-in-100 year storm. A frequency-paired approach is presented for comparing daily precipitation records from a mine site with a long-term regional station and provides the basis to transpose the long-term record to the mine site. This allows a long-term synthetic precipitation record to be developed for the mine site that can be used to undertake site water balance studies, determine pond storage requirements, assess water supply options and address other surface water management issues. Conventional approaches are based on chronologically-paired data and when applied to daily data generally yield poor correlations between stations. In the frequency-pairing approach, statistical distributions (two-parameter gamma distribution) are fit to daily data from two stations and used to calculate daily and extreme precipitation values for the short-term site (which is typically a mine or other project site). The method is demonstrated using data from two meteorological stations located along the south coast of British Columbia, Canada. Use of a fitted two-parameter gamma distribution (or other distribution) provides a sound theoretical approach to comparing precipitation data from two sites and the basis for transposing a long-term record to generate synthetic precipitation series and extreme rainfall values at mine sites.CITATION:Millar, R, 2013. A statistical approach for deriving project design rainfall, in Proceedings Water in Mining 2013 , pp 273-276 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).