A Statistical Method For Methane Prediction And Improved Environmental Control

This paper describes the results of an investigation into the application of a statistical method for the prediction of general air-body methane concentration in longwall coal districts. An important and necessary part of the research was the acquisition of representative monitored mine environmental and coal production data. The monitored data was used to build time series models of general air body methane concentration, air velocity, barometric pressure, coal production and methane drainage variables of differing timescales according to the Box-Jenkins method of time series analysis. The univariate models were used to identify causal relationships between methane concentration and its explanatory variables. Coal production was found to be the dominant variable in the determination of the quantity of methane emitted and where appropriate, multivariate time series models were built in which expressions for methane concentration in terms of coal production were obtained. Finally, forecasts of methane concentration values were generated from the multivariate models to determine their forecasting capabilities.