A Technique Of Risk Analysis For The Small Miner ? Introduction

Large mining companies use a number of sophisticated analytical techniques for introducing the element of risk into the valuation of mineral reserve sites. These methods include, but are not limited to, sensitivity analysis, computer simulation, conditional probability, and portfolio theory. Such techniques enable the managements of these large companies to have an awareness of the many possible ramifications of their investment decisions. On the other hand, small mining companies and individuals in the mining business, due to limited financial and technical resources, still rely primarily on single point estimates of the value of mineral reserves. These small miners introduce the aspect of risk only through the application of an appropriate "speculative" discount rate. This paper illustrates the application of a technique for the introduction of risk into investment analysis. The method appears to be most suitable for use by small mining companies and individuals contemplating a large investment in a new mineral reserve site.