Allocation Of Airborne Reconnaissance Effort: Maximization Of Gain In Information

The exploration geologist is frequently confronted with the problem of allocating his resources, i.e., exploration effort, among various areas. Although geologic, financial and logistic considerations influence the allocations, no objective criterion is usually given which determines the optimal allocation. Maximizing the gain in information, subject to the constraint of a limited exploration budget, is used as the objective criterion to allocate reconnaissance effort. The information function, I(x), quantifies the expected gain in information, where x is the scale of exploration. To calculate the information function the following data are necessary: 1. The probability that an area contains a target must be estimated. 2. For each scale of exploration, four probabilities must be estimated: the probability that an anomaly is produced by the target; the probability that an anomaly is not produced by the target; the probability that an anomaly is produced by a barren area (false signal); and the probability that an anomaly is not produced by a barren area. Alternatively, the barren area can be replaced by other targets. To illustrate the allocation model, the optimal number of line kilometers/line spacing per area is determined for an aeromagnetic survey for iron in Egypt.