Annual Review 1988

The 1987 recovery in the US mining industry permitted modest increases in exploration expenditures that year (Fig. 1). Favorable market conditions apparently allowed the gains to be sus¬tained in 1988. There was great uncer¬tainty early in the year as to whether world and US economic growth would be a casualty of the October 1987 worldwide stock market crash. By nearly all measures, the performance of the US minerals industry was strong¬. A weak US dollar and the strong growth of worldwide capital spending resulted in in¬creased US exports of con¬sumer and producer durable items as well as strong domes¬tic demand for metals. In fact, 1988 US steel industry exports reached levels not attained since the mid-1970s. It was re¬ported that steel industry labor productivity is now roughly twice the 1981 level. Among metals with signifi¬cant average nominal price increases in 1988 over 1987 levels were copper (43%), alu¬minum (52%0), and zinc (44%). Even though domestic copper production has grown since 1984 by 30% in mining and 24% in refining, em¬ployment in mining and milling is 4% below the 1984 level. Domestic unit costs are reported in the range of $1.10 to $1.33/kg (50 to 60 cents per lb). The US base metals industry is proba¬bly in its best cash position in many years. However, there has not been a large increase in exploration expendi¬tures. This is due mostly to the percep¬tion that worldwide capacity can easily be increased. Industry reports do show that "low cost" copper producers have been buying reserves from weaker com¬panies. The 1987 Society of Economic Ge¬ologists (SEG) survey of exploration activity indicated that 95 cents out of every exploration dollar spent by US and Canadian firms was for base and precious metals (Economic Geology, January 1989). Press reports, though, make it clear that most of that spending was targeted for precious metals. US claim staking data (Fig. 2) rein¬forces this suspicion. The apparent lag in new claim filings in Alaska and phe¬nomenal growth in filings in the lower 48 states suggests that exploration is directed at relatively low risk targets. In the conterminous 48, more than 40% of the new claims were made in Nevada, indicating an emphasis on gold (although even Nevada had some base metals exploration). Even with a price decline during 1988, the difference between the gold price and average global "cash" production cost of $7.30/g ($227 per oz) still leaves room for an attractive return (Northern Miner, 1988). Exploration plans and results Metals Economics Group (Halifax) indicated in its 1988 exploration survey that exploration expenditures by US and South African firms would be at about 1987 levels. It also reported that Canadian and Australian firms were ex¬pected to reduce their exploration spend¬ing significantly. Firms in both coun¬tries were caught in changes in tax laws. In Canada, the Mining Ex¬ploration Depletion Allow¬ance (MEDA) once permitted generous tax write-offs to in¬dividuals investing in miner¬als exploration. It was to be replaced in January 1989 with the Canadian Exploration In¬centives Program (CEIP). Although structured and ad¬ministered differently than MEDA, CEIP can provide an equivalent or possibly greater financial incentive for min¬eral exploration, for junior mining companies. In 1987, it is estimated that junior com¬panies accounted for two¬-thirds of the off-property (or grass roots) exploration ex¬penditures in Canada. Australia will revoke the tax exemption for gold in 1990. Australian operators, therfore, were expected to concentrate efforts on speeding up pro¬duction during 1988 and 1989. In 1988, Chile and Mali announced special efforts to attract gold explora¬tion by foreign companies. The Cana¬dian government continues to express concern about the write-off (and drawdown) of base metal reserves. Falconbridge did announce a new initiative to identify additional base metal reserves in the Sudbury district. Discoveries Gold deposits dominated discoveries