Application of the boundary element method for numerical modelling of the seismic hazard at Bambanani gold mine in South Africa

This paper presents a novel application of the boundary element method for numerical modelling of the seismic activity and hazard that is associated with the shaft pillar extraction at Bambanani mine in South Africa. In the numerical model, the tabular mining excavations are represented by displacement discontinuity elements, and to accommodate crush, shear, and fault slip seismic events, the numerical model is populated with additional displacement discontinuity elements that represent modelled crush- and shear-type failures in the rockmass. Crush-type failures are evaluated by applying the limit equilibrium method and a Hoek-Brown strength criterion, and shear-type failures are evaluated by applying a Coulomb-friction strength criteria to Ortleppshear and geological features. In this paper, the modelling results are presented as time history analyses of modelled potency from 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2022 and normalised exceedance rates for different mining periods using an upper-truncated power law. The normalised exceedance rates of seismic events that have moment magnitude Mw ≥ 1.0 are lowest for the initial mining period (26 events per year) and highest for the final mining period (218 events per year). The relative errors of the modelled potency and normalised exceedance rates are typically less than 10% or 15%, which suggests that the modelling methodology is appropriate for medium- and longer-term forecasting of seismic activity and hazard, as presented in this paper. Shorter-term forecasting is not considered in this paper.