Assessment of Unpredictability in Hydraulic Fracturing for Stress Amelioration around Underground Excavations

"This paper examines unpredictability in the parameters governing hydraulic fracturing (HF) as used in stress amelioration for underground excavations, with the aim of showing how this unpredictability may affect design decisions. Using uncertainty models that are appropriate to particular levels of information and degrees of uncertainty, this paper demonstrates how these can aid in decision-making related to feasibility assessments of HF arrays for stress amelioration.Cave mining operations produce large underground voids and high stress concentrations around critical mine locations. These stress concentrations increase the potential for rock burst events. Although de-stress blasting has a long history for redistributing high stress concentrations, to improve safety and reliability HF is now being trialled as an alternative.Unfortunately the HF process is extremely uncertain, and so predicting fracture propagation geometry is difficult. Although the major parameters governing HF propagation have been previously identified, no indication has been given regarding the contribution that uncertainty in these makes to unpredictability in the overall HF system. Using simplified models of HF and referencing a recently proposed characterization of unpredictability, we relate unpredictability in the various governing parameters to the effect it has on strain energy density (SED) in the surrounding rock. Within these models we analyse SED as well as the stress intensity factor (KIc) when investigating the effect of parameter uncertainty and its influence on various crack propagation criteria (Sih & Macdonald, 1974). These models are applicable to unpredictability associated with the development of new fractures; the case of pre-existing fractures is the subject of on-going work.The paper will assess in greater detail the various governing parameters, and investigate the appropriate use of other uncertainty models. As a result, we will show how assessment of uncertainty in HF parameters can be used to both guide feasibility studies and determine the optimal allocation of resources to improve the final design."