Backing a Winner ù Investment Risk in Mining Projects

Investment decisions in the Australian mining industry are often made without awareness of the impact of risk on project outcomes. A fundamental change in thinking is required to move away from the traditional attitude of æcushioning the blowÆ towards a measured approach to project risk. Such an approach involves quantifying and understanding project uncertainty so that investments may be shielded from downside risk while at the same time exposed to upside potential. Communication and collaboration between study teams and corporate financial managers must be improved before the industry can improve its project investment record. Monte-Carlo simulation provides a way to quantify and understand investment risk, but its accuracy depends on how well the variability of input parameters is estimated. Research in this area is currently centred on quantifying uncertainty in mineral resource estimation using new conditional simulation techniques, but a less-rigorous method can be applied in practice to begin the education process and develop the required awareness at board level.