Bituminous Coal Consumption Estimating Its Long Term Growth And Annual Variation ? Introduction

It has become apparent in recent years to everyone intimately concerned with the future of the American fuels industries that the growth in demand for energy has become a topic receiving considerable attention, and that investigators are leaning more and more toward a mathematical approach to deduce what pattern that growth will follow. Though coal has been included by necessity In all-studies of future energy markets, it has not been the subject of mathematical analysis or description as frequently as has been total energy or some of the other fuels, particularly petroleum, It is the intent in this particular paper, to subject bituminous coal consumption to a preliminary mathematical scrutiny which can lead to a more logical estimation of the general level of bituminous coal consumption for the next decade, as well as formulating an approach toward describing how coal consumption may vary as the result of the annual variations in activity in the United States, economy, The approach utilized is more sophisticated than the mere projection of the historical trend of bituminous coal consumption. Such a projection would lead to a continuation of the recent decline, indicating that coal consumption would reach zero some thirty years from now. On the other hand, the mathematical analysis described here is a relatively simple, straightforward approach and- is not intended to represent the-ultimate in mathematical economic analysis as now practiced, It is hoped that this will contribute to our knowledge of bituminous coal markets. Even more, it is hoped that it will help arouse a greater interestin utilizing mathematical and statistical analysis when studying the bituminous coal industry. - Since this is a preliminary study, comments and criticisms are anticipated.