Broker's Rules of Thumb for Mineral Valuation: A Focus on Gold Equities

Valuation of mining companies and their underlying assets prepared by brokers' analysts are, by necessity, approximations. The reliability of the valuations is entirely proportional to the quality of available data, the reliability of forecasts and the nature of underlying commodity price assumptions. The latter is perhaps the greatest single cause of gross variations in company and asset earnings estimates and- valuations. Assumptions are often necessary regarding commodity price achievement based on commodity hedge positions. Public disclosure from listed companies provides a sound base from which to project earnings, cashflows and balance sheets. The uncommon disclosure of projected production and cost schedules often reduces the reliability of future estimates. The application of reserve and resource estimates is contentious with practitioners applying differing weightings to importance of resources in estimating mine lives (and therefore cashflow streams). Valuation methods applied in equity markets usually focus on relative value and the identification of pricing anomalies. The commonest ""rules of thumb"" applied in the valuation of mining companies (and therefore their underlying assets) is with the use of year specific price/earnings (P/E) and price/cashflow (P/CF) ratios, with low multiples suggesting undervalued assets, high multiples overvalued situations (but these rules can often be clouded by market expectations of underlying commodity price movements). Another simply applied valuation tool is to examine the examine the value placed on reserves and resources by the market. Inexpensive gold in the ground (expressed as $ of market capitalisation per ounce of reserves or resources) might indicate a buying opportunity, but the market does discount the value of gold in the ground prior to mine development and where development risk is perceived.