Capital And Operating Cost Estimation (U.S. Department of Energy)

Introduction Estimates performed on potential future plants must by their very nature be either order-of-magnitude or budget (preliminary) estimates. Of the three types of estimates recognized by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Standard Z94.2), order-of-magnitude and budget estimates are the least accurate. Order-of-magnitude estimates have an expected accuracy of plus 50 percent to minus 30 percent. In other words, it is anticipated that actual project cost will be no more than 50 percent above the estimate and no less than 30 percent below the estimate. Budget estimates, or preliminary estimates as they are often called, have an expected accuracy of plus 30 percent to minus 15 percent. The reason that greater accuracy cannot be expected in performing estimates on proposed new facilities is simply that insufficient data is generally available to permit performance of a highly accurate estimate. As stated in ANSI Standard Z94.2, a definitive estimate, i.e., an estimate with an expected accuracy of plus 15 percent to minus 5 percent," . . is an estimate prepared from very defined engineering data . . . (including). . .as a minimum, fairly complete plot plans and elevations, piping and instrument diagrams, one line electrical diagrams, equipment data sheets and quotations, structural sketches, soil data and sketches of major foundations, building sketches and a complete set of specifications." In other words, the engineering of the project must be fairly well underway to permit a definitive estimate to be performed. Such is the case only after the construction decision has been made, all potential alternatives evaluated, and major expenditures committed for a particular course of action. This situation is beyond the scope of this chapter. The chapter is directed to comparison of various technological alternatives for which site specific engineering data is not generally available. Accordingly, such comparisons can be made only by utilizing preliminary or order-of-magnitude estimating techniques.