Cautious optimism rules for attendees of 2017 SME Annual Conference

"More than 6,300 people converged on the Colorado Convention Center for the 2017 SME Annual Conference and Expo and 119th National Western Mining Conference in Denver, CO on Feb. 19-22. Many of them crammed in to hear Douglas Silver deliver the keynote address to the conference.Silver is a portfolio manager for Orion Mine Finance, a private-equity fund focused on providing funding to advanced-stage base and precious metal projects and is one of the most respected voices in the field of mineral economics. Prior to joining Orion, he served as chief executive officer and chairman of International Royalty Corp., a global mineral royalty company, which he founded in 2003 and sold in 2011.Those who were hoping that Silver would deliver at least a bit of optimism during his 90-minute presentation got what they came for from the talk titled, “When are commodity prices going to rebound?”It marked the second time Silver has presented the keynote address to SME, the first was in 2008 and was delivered during the height of mining’s super cycle (ME, June 2008). In his 2017 address, Silver looked back on the previous 10 years and the massive contraction of the global economy that resulted from the great recession that began near the end of 2008.It has been a challenging time for the mining industry. About US$1.4 trillion was lost in the global mining stocks from 2011 to Jan. 6, 2016. Major mining companies exceeded $60 billion in write downs between 2012 and 2013 and investors lost confidence in the sector, putting the global mining industry into a bear market that has taken mining equities to historic lows.However, that was then and this is now.Using numerous examples, including rising commodity prices, a steady decline in the U.S. unemployment rate, increases in discretionary income and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which topped the 20,000 mark for the first time ever in February, Silver theorized the current down cycle is near its end and the demand for metals and other commodities will see a sharp increase by 2025. He also noted that investors are beginning to rotate back into mining equities."