Changes in Trade Patterns for Lead and Zinc - A Regional Analysis

INTRODUCTION This presentation will address changing trade patterns in lead and zinc from the mid 1980's to the early 1990's. Lead and zinc deposits are developed where they are found in many parts of the world. As many are not in major consuming areas, there is significant international trade in both lead and zinc concentrates and in refined metal. Forecasts of mine production have been analyzed, primary and secondary refining capacity and future consumption levels have been estimated, to arrive at the changes in trade patterns expected during the next half decade. This paper will first address concentrate and metal trade patterns for lead, then for zinc, and finally some remarks will be made on captive mine/smelter agreements, on regional trade agreements, and on barriers to trade. I would like to note that. there is only a small international trade in semi-fabricated products such as zinc die-cast alloy, zinc oxide, lead oxide or rolled lead and zinc. Most of the world's zinc and lead trade is in concentrates or refined metal. LEAD TRADE PATTERNS Lead Concentrates Six countries are exporters of lead concentrates. Three countries are in the Americas - Canada, Mexico and Peru, with two in Africa - Morocco and South Africa (including Namibia), and Australia. Due to the limited growth in lead consumption and consequent minimum investment in new production facilities expected, mine and metal production levels and future consumption levels are not forecast to change much between now and 1990. Accordingly, the tonnage of lead concentrates exported will remain essentially unchanged from these six countries. In total they have exports of 480,000 metric tonnes (metal content)* and by 1990 this figure is forecast to rise only slightly with the only increase taking place in Mexico. The concentrates are exported mainly to Western Europe & Japan. Apart from these six main lead concentrate exporting nations, a significant change is expected in the United States. In the mid * All concentrate trade figures are based on metal content