Coal - Economics of Coal for West Coast Power Generation

W-hile the litle of this paper embraces the entire West Coast, the author, in the interest of simplification, has confined the discussion to California—particularly the central section. California's population has risen 45 pct since 1940. Its electric requirements have also increased, not only because of the growth in industry and population but also because of the widespread tendency of all types of electric consumers to use more electricity than ever before. The growth of California's electric utilities is shown by published data covering operations of three of its large systems and is given in Table 1. New Capacity Steam Driven In meeting these additional electric loads there has been a substantial increase in generation from fuel burning plants as shown by the published energy statistics given in Table 2. Increased Fuel Oil Consumption A study of construction plans of the three electric utility systems named in Table 2 clearly shows that expected new electric loads are to be met, to a large extent, by new steam generating capacity as shown by Table 3. D. D. Smalley, Vice President of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co., in an address before the Pacific Coast Electrical Association in June 1948, stated that California utilities plan to meet new electric loads through greater use of steal11 plank and that in 1951 approximately 45 pct of the area's electric production would be by steam as compared to 33.6 pct in 1946. He stated that if load growth develops as expected and if the year 1952 is dry, thereby requiring high load factor steam operation, the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. would need the equivalent of nearly 25 million barrels of fuel oil. Federal Power Commission reports show that the energy input to the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. system was approximately one billion kilowatt-hours greater in 1947 than in 1946. They also show that the steam plant operating capacity factor in 1946 was approximately 35 pct; in 1947 it, was 72 pct due, probably, to the extreme drought. able 3 shows that Pacific Gas and Electric Co. now has under construction 327,000 kw of hydro capacity which, by 1950, will bring its total hydro generating capacity to 1,313,899 kw. In addition to hydro capacity under construction that company also has 975,000 kw of steam generating capacity under construction, which by 1951 will bring its total steam capacity to 1,560,834 kw. If it is assumed that this total steam electric capacity is operated at a capacity factor of 45 pct, in 1951, over 6 billion kilowatt-hours would be generated. If the load growth on the Pacific Gas and Electric system continues at the current rate of approximately one billion kilowatt-hours per year and if it is assumed that 70 pct of this increase would be generated by steam (30 pct assumed to be generated by hydro facilities with average water conditions), the steam electric production in 1960 would amount to 12 billion kilowatt-hours, which would require fuel the equivalent of 24 million barrels of oil or 6 million tons of coal. Government Projects Inadequate Much has been written with respecl to the plans of the Department of Interior in regard to the installation of hydroelectric plants as a part of multipurpose dams relating to reclamation. flood control, and power generation. An examination of the effect of such plans on the power supply for central and northern California is of interest. The Depart,ment of Interior now has five 73,000 kw units at its Shasta hydro plant on the Sacramento River. It now appears that its three 25,000 kw unit Keswick hydro plant on the same river will be available during the winter of 1949 to 1950. Its estimates show that in a dry year there is sufficient water for operation of Shasta units at an average load factor of 36 pct and Keswick units at a load factor of 41 pct. It is also giving consideration to the development of the Pine Flat and Haas hydroelectric plants on Kings River for generating capacities of 45,000 kw each. The total installation of Government, units in Central Valley and Kings River in California is relat.ively small when compared with t.he