Coal mining research - Growth in energy demand can be met while reducing injuries and fatalities

Introduction The issue of coal mining safety plays an important role in the United States' growing dependence on coal to supply its future needs. This article will address the federal government's role, principally the US Bureau of Mines, in meeting this challenging growth and demand while reducing the social and economic costs attributed to injuries and fatalities in underground mining. Some interesting facts and projections with respect to the nation's energy picture will be discussed. This includes the distribution of its reserves and the projected role of coal in the energy and economics of the nation's future. Underground mining will continue to be an important means of providing this coal. The author will discuss how the Bureau of Mines' research program addresses the problems of health and safety that grow out of the demand for more coal. Future projections First, a synopsis of salient facts and projections concerning the US's situation with respect to energy and the economy. Figure 1 depicts the relative quantities of recoverable energy reserves in the United States by their type. Most people are aware of the nation's use of oil. We hear a lot about natural gas. And we are aware of the controversy over the use of nuclear energy. But, while looking at Fig. 1, the question becomes, "Where will our fuel to meet the demand for energy in the future most certainly have to come from?" With 82% of the nation's recoverable fuel reserves being coal, the answer is irrefutable. Coal will be that source. Figure 2 is the present market for coal. It shows that 77% of the coal mined goes to supply electric utilities. Therefore, the coal industry as a whole is most sensitive to the trends and demands for electricity. It is less affected by what happens in other markets, such as export and direct industrial use. In fact, the coal industry is three times more sensitive to the electric utility market than to all other markets combined. Therefore, the trend in the demand for electricity must be examined. Electricity demand is expected to increase steadily over the next 15 years. It is projected to grow from its present 2.3 trillion kWh per year to 3.5 trillion kWh per year by the year 2000. The fuel to supply this increase in demand must come from somewhere. The question is "How much of this extra fuel will be coal?" Although the demand for electricity is predicted to increase, the demand for coal does not necessarily follow. Coal must maintain its fraction of the energy sources used for electricity generation if its demand is to increase at the same or greater rate as electricity. Except for a near-term dip in demand due to a slight increase in nuclear capacity, the domestic electric generation accruing to coal will go from 56% in 1985 to more than 60% in 2005. Thus, the predicted trend is for coal to become a larger part of the fuel mix for electric power generation. Similarly, looking at the most recent forecast for total coal consumption trends, it can be seen that for electric power generation alone, the coal industry must be able to supply an additional 316 Mt/a (348.5 million stpy) by the year 2000 (Fig. 3). It must be stressed here, though, that without significant improvements in mining safety, it can also be easily predicted that injuries and fatalities will increase in proportion to the increase in coal production. Will society consider that acceptable? This author does not believe so. Figure 4 examines the effect of coal prices on the price of electricity. The projections show that the already high proportion of fuel cost will become a greater fraction of the consumer price for electricity. Specifically in 1985, 36% of the price of electricity was the cost of the fuel. In 1995, 46% of the price of electricity will be the fuel cost. That implies that the price of coal will have an increasing influence on the consumer price for electricity. Thus, as coal is used more to generate electricity and as fuel becomes a greater