Computer Modeling Of Metal Market Potential

A microcomputer equipped with spreadsheet, data management, and FOR- TRAN programming software is used to update and quantify a model for ranking seventeen economically important metal commodities in terms of market potential (Huyck, 1982). Weighted factors are used for the ranking: (1) demand growth trends, (2) end-use substitution vulnerability, (3) recycling trends, (4) price trends, and (5) cumulative demand versus world reserves factor. Price trends are defined using (1) price-vs.-year slopes (with prices in 1967 constant dollars) and (2) standard deviations of slopes (to indicate price volatility). Substitution vulnerability is defined as the percent of end-use which is replace- able by other commodities, and a factor indicating the likelihood of such substitution. Factors are normalized and linearly combined to produce a ranking of the seventeen metals. Microcomputer software is essential for organizing data and calculating statistical parameters and linear combinations of factors.