Computing The Reliability Of Soil Slopes Using Conditional Simulation (PRIPRINT 93-273)

The geostatistical technique of conditional simulation is applied to measure the uncertainty in factor of safety predictions for soil slopes where there is incomplete knowledge of the spatial distribution of soil properties. A case study considers a natural clay slope in Canada. The sequential indicator simulation technique is used as a means for generating a series of spatial maps of soil properties for this site. These maps approximate random draws from the conditional probability density function that characterizes existing uncertainty in the spatial distribution. Factor of safety determinations are then made for each simulated map using the simplified-Janbu approach, where the computations are performed with a new computer program that can operate on irregular spatial profiles of soil properties specified on a discrete grid. A unique capability of this approach is the ability to generate the distribution of factor of safety conditional to the type, position, and value of existing site characterization measurements. This capability should reduce uncertainty in FS predictions.