Consideration of Potential Effects of Climate Change and Resulting Hydrologic Impacts on Mine Developments

There is general agreement among scientists that global surface temperatures have been increasing during the past decades. The increase in temperature is postulated to be the result of either an increase in greenhouse gases emission or climate variability (i.e., due to variations in sun or volcanic activity or El Nino and La Nina events) during past decades and may continue to increase. The effects of a predicted rise in the Earth?s surface temperature include an increase in average global evaporation and increase or decrease in precipitation (Bloomfield, 1992; Mann et al., 1991; Vinnikov et al., 1990; Gan 1995; Zhang et al., 2000a). The general circulation models (GCMs) project a global warming due to greenhouse effects of 1.5-4.5°C by the mid 2050s, with the most pronounced changes taking place in northern latitudes (Nicholls et al., 1996). However, similar predictions at a watershed scale or even a regional scale using GCMs are mot possible yet (Arnell et. al., 1996; Georgievskii et. al., 1996; Zhang et al., 2000a). Detection of historic trends, changes and variability in climatic variables is another indirect means of understanding potential future changes or variability at regional and local scales. The main objective of this paper is to review studies related to climatic change or variability and associated hydrologic changes at a regional scale and local scale, particularly those studies applicable to the Oil Sands Region (OSR) of Alberta. This paper identifies gaps in our current understanding of the hydrologic processes that may be affected by climate change; it discusses potential implications to developments in the OSR; and it explores mitigation opportunities including several that have already been implemented.