Crystal ball on the eighties

"Considering the traumatic events of Canadian mining taxation of the 1970s, one wonders at the sanity of anybody who tries to predict what the 1980s might hold for the tax structure of the mining industry. Yet, the author agreed to tackle this task when called upon to do so at the annual meeting of the Quebec Metal Mining Association in June. The text of this ""daring"" speech follows.IntroductionI have been asked to play the part of the oracle at Delphi, and to predict what the 1980s might hold for the Canadian mining industry in terms of taxation. To appreciate the challenge of this difficult assignment, try to imagine someone in my position back in 1972 attempting to forecast the balance of the 1970s. I daresay that ten years ago nobody could possibly have conceived of the devastating and casualty-ridden rollercoaster ride that mining taxation actually took in the 70s. Nevertheless, I shall examine the entrails and try to shed some light on what might happen during the balance of this decade as far as mineral taxation is concerned.If one were to retreat deep into history, one would find that taxation generally served one purpose-namely, to raise revenues for the government. More recently, an important second function has emerged: taxation is increasingly being used as a fiscal tool-a tool intended to mould and shape future events in order to accomplish certain economic, social and political objectives. It is these two main forces-the need (or desire) for revenues and the perceived convenience of using taxation as a fiscal tool-which will continue to shape the tax structure of the future.In our assessment of where taxation of the mining industry may be headed, we should be able to learn something by looking at where we have been."