Cyclical Trends and the Metal Market Outlook

"AbstractThis paper provides a rough outline of economic expectations for the near future and then goes on to discuss their effect on the expected demand for metals, using zinc, copper, nickel and aluminum as detailed examples.IntroductionMINING, as you are all painfully aware, is a cyclical business. We believe that it will remain so as long as there are economic cycles.The fortunes of the industry are tied to those sectors of the economy where decisions can be postponed until more favourable times: automobiles, housing, appliances, inventory building and capital spending. Over the past two years, while U.S. GNP fell by 3.8%, automobile production declined by 31 %, from 9.7 million units in 1973 to 6.7 million in 1975. Housing starts plummeted some 43% from 2.1 million units in 1973 to 1.2 million in 1975. Little wonder that U.S. copper consumption fell by 37% and zinc consumption by 38% over the same period.With the rest of the world's economies moving in unison with that of the United States, it is also not surprising that times have been tough for mining.Arthur Burns, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, contends that each recession sows the seeds of its own recovery. The worse the recession, the better the subsequent recovery. If this is true, then the lot of the mining industry should improve significantly over the next two to three years."