Demand and production potential of coal in Canada

"Past Growth The Canadian coal industry has grown rapidly during the past two decades. Coal production increased over four-fold between 1965 and 1982; consumption almost doubled, imports remained relatively flat, exports soared and total demand increased nearly two and a half times. Coal production grew during this period at an average rate of 8.60/o, compounded annually; this remarkable performance is shown in Table 1 and Figure 1. The relationship between production and consumption is shown in Figure 1, where in 1981 the total Canadian production of coal for the first time exceeded total Canadian consumption. ln Figure 2, the relationship between imports from the United States and Canadian coal exports is shown; in_ 1981 again for the first time, exports offshore exceeded imports into Canada. The rapid growth in Canadian coal use between 1965 and 1982 followed a major decline after World War II, as the country moved rapidly to an oil based economy. Changes in consumption patterns between 1945 and 1982 are shown ~n Table 2. Railway consumption of coal was reduced to zero m the early 1960s. The industrial and domestic consumers market share fell from about 660/o in 1960 to 6.70/o in 1975; this share, however, appears to have stabilized in recent years and actual volumes can be expected to increase in the future. The steel industry's share of the coal market fell over the same period, but the volume in recent years has remained fairly constant at about seven megatonnes per year.Perhaps the most significant change in consumption is in the share of coal consumed in the generation of electricity; this has increased from 80/o in 1960 to over three quarters of the total Canadian coal consumed in 1982. This increase in thermal coal consumption has been supplied by indigenous coal, and was accompanied by a decreasing share for coal imported from the U.S.A. into central Canada. It is expected, because of the nuclear power commitment in Ontario, that this share will continue to decrease, although the total volume of coal imported may increase slowly over time. This will likely also have a dampening effect on future coal sales to Ontario from western Canada."