Determining the value of additional drilling

The spatial distribution of copper grades at the Mansa Mina project is highly variable due to the presence of high grade copper/silver/arsenic breccia bodies. Copper grades within the breccia bodies tend to average about 4.5% copper while grades in the surrounding stockwork average about 1.0%. The breccia is known to occur in the vicinity of significant controlling structures, however, the outline and therefore the thickness of the bodies are far from regular. Due to the high grade of these bodies a significant proportion of the value of the project is derived from the breccia tonnages. The irregularity in the outlines/thickness translates into an uncertainty in the breccia tonnage and therefore in the value of the project. Acknowledging the economic importance of the breccia bodies and the risk associated with the breccia tonnage uncertainty, significant additional drilling has been proposed to both understand the spatial distribution of the breccias and reduce project risk. The costs associated with this additional drilling are not inconsequential; thus, a reasonable question is ‘what value is derived from this additional drilling’? To obtain an answer to this important question, a simulation approach is applied. First the deposit is simulated using the existing drilling and the uncertainty in the resource is defined. Next the proposed drilling program is simulated and the simulated data are added to the existing data. Using this expanded data set a second simulation of the deposit is created and once again the uncertainty in the resource is defined. Using this approach, the reduction in the uncertainty in the resource can be determined. To convert this reduction in uncertainty (or reduction in risk) in the stated resource into a dollar value, a method of defining the increase in the project rate of return necessary to account for risk is presented. Using the two different rates of return, the difference in project NPV and hence the value of additional drilling is determined.