Deterministic And Stochastic Water-Balance Modeling Of The Gilt Edge Mine Superfund Site, South Dakota

A water-balance model with deterministic and stochastic components was developed and used for the Gilt Edge Mine Superfund Site in South Dakota. The model was developed to evaluate the risks of contaminated runoff discharging to surface waters based on assumed water treatment plant (WTP) rates, for different remedial alternatives. The objectives of the modeling were to use a stochastic approach for the analysis of precipitation based on historic records and to make a probabilistic estimation of annual and monthly runoff from disturbed/mining activity areas that now require, or will need, treatment at the WTP, water storage and changes in a major pit, and risk of contaminated water bypass of the WTP to a downstream drainage. Subareas/source areas generating contaminated runoff requiring treatment were delineated. A simple water-balance model was used based on precipitation inputs and evapotranspiration and groundwater losses. Annual and monthly precipitation records for Lead, South Dakota, were used to estimate precipitation at the mine site. A lognormal distribution was estimated for monthly precipitation. The stochastic software package/ Excel add-in "@Risk" was used to generate random monthly precipitation values using a Monte Carlo method based on the distributions. The average annual and monthly distribution of pan and lake evaporation and of groundwater losses were also estimated for the site. Stochastic outputs from the model for the end of each month and year included contaminated runoff requiring treatment, water storage in mine pits and the risk of WTP bypass given different assumed WTP rates. The probability of the time required to dewater the pits was also modeled.