Development Of Hydrologic Risk - Based Methodology For Evaluation Of Dam Safety In Missouri ? Introduction

Risk analysis is used extensively in many engineering applications. Although its use in the field of dam safety has been limited in practice, it has received considerable attention in recent years in the dam safety literature. Thus far, it has been shown that risk analysis in the evaluation of existing dams has the potential for providing a more rational basis for decision- making because of its focus on the direct issues--likelihood of failure, likelihood of loss of life, and risk cost of damages. It provides for a logical balance between the risk a dam imposes and the degree to which rehabilitation is required, compared to traditional evaluations based on somewhat arbitrarily chosen design events applied to large classes of dams. Dam owners could benefit by optimizing the cost of remedial measures. Downstream landowners could benefit by minimizing the likelihood of flood damages. However, it is also clear that significant technical and policy issues remain to be resolved before risk analysis in dam safety is accepted and routinely implemented in engineering practice. An obvious and important potential application of risk analysis is its use by the state regulatory agency as an in-house evaluation tool, or even as part of regulatory policy, in the implementation of its state dam safety program. Adoption of such a policy would have an important impact on the mining industry. .Although no state dam safety programs are known by the writers to have officially incorporated risk analysis into their regulations, there appears to be considerable interest in the concept. In recent surveys 47 states agreed that the development and promotion of a risk assessment methodology for state dam safety programs should be encouraged (Tschantz, 1983; Tschantz, 1984). The issue has also received important attention within the Association of State Dam Safety Officials (1986). One state-Illinois-proposed regulations during 1986 to allow risk analysis to justify lower spillway requirements for existing dams (Illinois Department of Transportation, 1986). At the Federal level, the National Research Council has found risk analysis especially appropriate for assessing dam safety at high-hazard dams (National Research Council, 19851, the Bureau of Reclamation has published guidelines for incorporating risk analysis into their dam safety grogram (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1986), and the Federal Emergency Management Agency has recently sponsored workshops and supported research related to risk analysis in dam safety (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1985a ; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1985b; - - McCann, et. al., 1985a, 1985b).