Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Methodology and Discount Rates

"This paper examines the impact of the various assumptions that go into an economic evaluation, and shows how these can be combined to show an exciting result that may not really exist. An example of an embellished case (the kind that one frequently sees when projects are being promoted) is developed and the cumulative impact is analysed to show the actual project underneath. The paper also points out some areas to watch for overly optimistic assumptions such as prices, inflation, and debt. The concept of a ""bare bones"" base case is proposed (constant metal prices, constant dollars, no inflation, no debt, no interest, on a project basis, after tax) as a common reference point.As well, the discount rate is examined as a fundamental means of reflecting risk in discounted cash flow evaluations. Current industry practice is discussed, and a methodology for the analysis of risk levels is proposed that assesses the constituent components of the discount rate: real interest, mineral project risks, and country risk.INTRODUCTIONOften, the first time that all of the technical and economic data for a mineral project comes together in one place is when the economic evaluation is developed. This typically happens when work on the project has progressed to a sufficient level of detail that the effort to produce a year-by-year cash flow is justified, usually at the pre-feasibility or feasibility study stage. The data involved will include:• production; tonnes waste and ore mined, ore grade, mining recovery, metallurgical recovery, metal sold• revenue; metal price, smelting & refining charges, marketing costs• operating Costs; mining, milling, administration, fees, royalties• capital Costs; exploration, development, construction, indirect costs (engineering, management), contingencies, start-up, inventories, working capital, replacement and sustaining capital, closure costs• taxes and royalties• exclusions; depreciation (this is not a cash item), sunk costs (only costs going forward)."