Discovery Performance of the Western World Gold Industry Over the Period 1985 - 2003

This paper summarises the performance of the gold exploration industry in the Western World since 1970, with particular emphasis on the period 1985 - 2003. It identifies the number and size of major (ie >1 million ounce) primary gold discoveries made over this period by location and type of company. Estimates are also made of the likely contribution from smaller discoveries down to 0.1 million ounces. It also assesses the overall trend in the percentage of grassroot discoveries that are converted into mines, and the time taken to get them into production. By comparing the discovery data against total exploration expenditures it is possible to determine the average unit cost of finding a major gold deposit. It is significant to note that the average unit cost per discovery and per ounce of resource has tripled over the last 30 years. An attempt is made to determine the overall economic value generated by the industry. This is based on a detailed analysis of the rates of return and the Net Present Values (NPVs) of 109 major gold projects. After including an adjustment for discoveries not modelled, the NPVs are compared against the total amount of money spent on exploration to determine the value-to-cost ratio for the industry. Based on historical spot gold prices and tax rules, it is found that the return on investment for gold exploration in the Western World over the period 1985 - 2003 was around five per cent real after-tax. The returns achieved in the US and Australia was significantly higher than that for Canada. The returns also appear to have declined in recent years. With regard to the relative performance of junior versus major companies, the paper estimates that the junior sector accounted for 30 - 40 per cent of the total exploration expenditure, and were was associated with 34 per cent of the total number of major deposits, 27 per cent of the contained ounces and 25 per cent of the economic value found.