Discussion – Determination of the Optimum Lifetime of a Mining Project Using Discounted Cash Flow and Option Pricing Techniques – ME Vol.44, No.10 1992, pp.1262-1268 – Cavender, B.

The paper proposes three methods to determine optimum lifetime of a mining project1. The conclusion is that the three methods arrive at the same optimum production rate (by coincidence). It is also stated that: "The stochastic and option pricing models, in addition to providing a more realistic optimum mine life than the traditional NPV (net present value) calculation, showed that the example project has the potential for substantially higher return. By explicitly considering a project's potential risks, the stochastic or option pricing techniques can more accurately describe its probable investment performance." This discussion is intended to demonstrate that: • It is no coincidence that the three methods arrive at the same optimum production rate. • The stochastic and option pricing models do not provide a more realistic optimum mine life than the traditional NPV calculation. • The potential for a substantially higher return is misrepresented. First, a review of investment decision theory in mining is needed. Net present value is the preferred performance measure because of the flexibility offered when comparing various alternatives. However, it presents the following disadvantages: • The discount rate selection is not straightforward. • The NPV obtained represents a deterministic characterization of the variables included in the cash flow calculations, i.e. a single-point estimate.