Discussion on the Economics of Canadian Gold Production

Mr. B. Neilly: A week or so ago the Secretary was good enough to forward me an advance copy of this paper by Mr. Logan and it was suggested that I comment on it at this meeting. At that time I was not very certain that I would be here, so I committed my thoughts to paper. As a matter of courtesy to Mr. Logan, I sent him a copy of my proposed remarks and I would like to give you just what I sent to him. Appreciating fully Mr. Logan's ability and many sources of information, one naturally hesitates to question anything seriously set forth as his considered opinion. Neither does one of my political stripe like to accuse him of being too 'conservative.? However, in places his paper reminds me of another general manager of a Canadian bank. While I was still Secretary of the Ontario Mining Association, this general manager wrote asking for our forecast on the current year's mineral production, stating that he proposed to refer to such production figures in his annual address to his shareholders. The request was considered very complimentary to the Ontario Mining Association and, in my opinion, justified a great deal of serious study and effort. Finally, the estimate was prepared and forwarded, showing a modest increase over the previous year's total. Picture our surprise and chagrin on reading his address to find that he predicted not an increase but, if you please, a decline of over $10,000,000. Before I cooled off I wrote asking the basis of such a prediction and got a reply to the effect that men in his position had to be ultra conservative in picturing the future.