Economic Criteria for Decision Making

Modelling of cash flows and calculation of net present value of rate of return over the expected life of a mine/processing unit continues to be the accepted basis for mineral investment decision-making. The computer and spreadsheet programs have greatly improved ability to perform sensitivity and risk analysis, hence our ability to deal with key analytical problems. These problems of cash flow analysis result from the necessity of forecasting an uncertain and risky future. Cash flow models begin with the critical assumption of a "design basis", then integrate all of the variables relevant to the investment decision including forecasts of price, cost, taxation, financial conditions, and company strategy. Alternate "scenarios" portray possible future outcome of the investment decision. The potential for straying from reality is enormous. The computer has eliminated the time consuming hand calculations from the cash flow analysis, but the analyst still struggles with the risk of trying to predict "how the project will really turn out".