Economic Cycles as a Tool in Business Forecasting

The economic evolution from an agrarian society to an industrial and service-oriented economy is apparent to most students of history. The long-term trend is almost taken for granted, it does not require explanation — it is accepted as the nature of man to improve his standard of living. However, there are fluctuations around this trend line which have provoked a great deal of thought. The ability to understand and control these fluctuations would yield many benefits, it would eliminate economic waste and public hardship, and would no doubt make a few fortunes. I f it is not possible to control or eliminate these fluctuations, then a reasonable forecast of the tinting, rate of change and magnitude of the fluctuations would be invaluable to industry and government.