Economic Evaluation Of Coal Preparation In Appalachian Region Using Deterministic And Probabilistic Analysis

An economic analysis for evaluating coal preparation plants in the Appalachian Region is presented. A complete coal preparation plant which includes multi-streams and/or multi-stages coal cleaning circuits, complete closed water circuits, environmentally acceptable refuse disposal and reclamation systems is used to determine the capital and operating costs. The plant is capable of producing metallurgical grade clean coal or deep cleaned steam grade coal for future power generating plants use. Utilizing a profit maximization as a decision criterion, an optimal yield, and optimal coal clean¬ing circuits, closed water circuits, and disposal and reclamation systems for a given coal characteristic may be selected among the process alternatives by using a process simulation-economic model of the coal preparation plant. A deterministic analysis is used to calculate the discounted-cash-flow interest rate of return (DCFIROR) and project the selling prices, and determine the Return on Investment (ROI) for the cases of 32.65% and 52.74% plant utilization with producing two cleaned products. Sensitivity analyses are performed to quantify the effect of total capital investment, operating cost, run-of-mine cost and yield on an economic criterion-ROI and selling prices. A probabilistic evaluation using the Monte Carlo simulation technique is further made to quantify the risk involved in obtaining the desired profit levels. The results of the economic analysis for a given coal preparation plant configuration and characteristics of raw coal indicates that the selling prices of producing two cleaned products are greatly affected by the change in percent of plant utilization (production schedule), yield, and run-of-mine cost, and total capital cost. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the total capital investments has a three times greater effect on required selling prices than operating costs. The risk analysis shown that the overall economics look very attractive with current coal sale prices and 52.74% plant utilization.