Economics - Factors Affecting the Demand for Gasoline and Crude Oil over the Next Few Years: A study of Automobiles in Use (With Appendix on Marketing Trends)

The writer has been interested for some time in trying to appraise our industry's prospects for gasoline consumption over the next half dozen years or so. Anyone who has even approached the problem knows the intimate relationship to it of the number of automobiles in use— by automobiles I mean both passenger cars and trucks. Probably at least 90 per cent of our gasoline is used in automotive vehicles. Some recent estimates secured from the Department of Commerce show the following breakdown: Per Cent Passenger cars............................................ 60.0 Trucks................................................... 27.4 Busses................................................... 2.9 Taxicabs................................................. 2.2 Subtotal............................................... 92.5 Aviation, motor boats and railroads......................... 0.5 Agricultural: farm tractors, etc.............................. 3.3 Balance (manufacturing, government use, construction, etc.)... 3.7 100.0 Up to the beginning of the depression there was, of course, a constant annual increase in the number of automobiles in use, for each year the industry added to the total inventory or ''population" more new units than were being scrapped, as may be seen in Fig. 1. Few of us in the oil industry needed to give much attention to the detailed figures, although the automobile industry seemed to interest itself in all sorts of calculations of replacement demand vs. new car demand, the average life of the car, the number scrapped, and the like. Probably many people in the oil industry, as well as outside it, were surprised at the way in which automobile registrations and gasoline consumption held up during the early years of the depression. Nor were they greatly perturbed when, as in the last two years, both registrations and consumption began to fall somewhat. That was natural enough; it