Economics - Pay-out! Its Power to Reflect Mine Profitability

Pay-out, the ratio of capital expenditure to annual cash return can be very revealing when employed to gage the merits of a proposed mining venture. It is a quantity, numerically but not physically equal to a factor, by which cash return may be discounted to equal required investment. The fewer the pay-out years, the greater the average annual earning power of the project. Considerable material has been written in the past about the most important and difficult problem mining management faces in evaluation of a property: the optimum production rate for the venture. What daily capacity should be adopted for the proposed operation that it may be the most rewarding to those underwriting it? H.C. Hoover has said, "The most important objective is the least cost per ton mined; and minimum working costs can only be gained by the most intensive production." Theoretically and practically, the quicker the ore is removed, the more profitable should be the venture because of the saving in fixed charges, the consequent lower unit costs and the interest unearned by the profit from the unmined ore. Yet, such performance will be tempered by policy and a restraint imposed by the ratio of capital expenditure to annual cash return. * The 'Annual net profit after taxes but including depreciation and depletion allowances. former will be based upon an analysis of the economic climate anticipated, with its many ramifications including the demand for the product, prices, tax laws, the conduct of labor and related wage scales. The variables and intangibles involved in estimating the optimum production rate for a mine do not readily lend themselves to mathematical relationships or equations and the problem can become complex indeed. The more readily applicable and relatively faster appraisal method will be used which, in addition to being reasonably adequate in most cases, will serve as a guide, should a more expanded and detailed estimate be desired. The first question is what is company policy with respect to the rate of investment return? This will depend on that significant period of time referred to as the pay-out, which can be defined as the estimated interval during which capital investment is returned through application of annual cash return to its recovery. Expressed another way, it is the ratio of capital expenditure to the annual cash return. For example, if the capital investment is $C and the annual cash return is $A (after Federal tax), then $C/$A = the pay-out period in years. That is to say, if $C = $1,500,000 and $A = $214,000, then which is the mathematical expression for the period of time it takes to recover the funds originally invested in a mining enterprise. The relationship yp = $C/$A can be useful — an expression which requires only the significant tern yp to be fixed; in other words, the long range investment policy. For what is the pay-out period but an expression of that policy in terms of the speed, within practical limits, with which an individual or company may want to recover capital expenditure? A policy by which pay-out will be fixed is imperative. This ratio must lie within relatively narrow limits governed by what is economically feasible. It cannot be too low, rendering the ratio impractical or absurd, nor too great, delaying the return of capital for reinvestment beyond a commensurate interval. What pay-out will govern this policy? Federal corporate taxes would seem to present the best measure. Consider mining in Canada where new mines are exempt from Federal income tax for 3½ yr from date of first production. This exemption expressly allows The Act states: "A corporation . . . i s not required to include the profits . . . for the period of 36 months commencing with the day on which the mine came into production in reasonable commercial quantites." a company to recover capital expenditure during the early stages of production. With such an incentive, it is logical to strive for as much capital redemption as possible during this period. Thus, 3½ yr would be a major contribution to the pay-out in Canada. Furthermore, it generally takes from 1½ to 3 yr to develop