Economics - Risk Analysis in Mineral Investment Decisions

Risk for most mineral investments is greater than that of average business ventures, because the physical and economic characteristics of the mineral deposit are never known with certainty. Inasmuch as the merits of a potential mineral investment cannot be fully appraised without consideration of the impact to the investor of the possible unfavorable events associated with the adoption of the project, methods of risk analysis are important in project evaluation and investment selection. The conceptual framework for risk analysis and the means by which some of the recommended practices might be implemented are examined. In addition to the normal business risk due to market forces, the physical and economic characteristics of the mineral deposit are never known with certainty, for only partial or indirect information is available, such as data from drill cores or surface and underground workings. Consequently, risk for most mineral investments is greater than that of average business ventures. Inasmuch as the merits of a potential mineral investment cannot be fully appraised without consideration of the impact to the investor of the possible unfavorable events associated with adoption of the project, methods of risk analysis are important in project evaluation and investment selection. This paper examines the conceptual framework for risk analysis and means by which might be implemented some of the recommended procedures. Utility Theory A discourse on risk and its impact upon investment selection quite often leads the reader into the concept of utility theory, for utility theory is a device constructed by economists to measure the satisfaction an individuai receives from a good; in the case of investment analysis, that good is the outcome of an investment. It briefly is reviewed here to describe the reaction of the individual to risk and as a stepping stone to other techniques more suited to risk analysis at the level of the firm. Utility theory proposes that an investor possess a utility map (curve), such as indicated in Fig. 1, which indicates the value in utiles of potential monetary rewards to an individual with some specific endowment of resources. Points on this map are obtained from the following relationship: