Effect Of Correlation On Rock Slope Stability Analyses

Many of the proposed techniques for calculating the reliability of rock slopes utilize Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo approaches are attractive because they provide means of solving probabilistic problems with deterministic algorithms. One disadvantage shared by all simulation-based stability analyses is that they assume all the random variables are independently distributed. The paper focuses on the independence assumption and examines the effect of correlation on the probability of failure. In particular it considers the influence of possible (albeit hypothetical) correlation between joint attitudes [(8)] and joint friction angles [($)]. The study indicates that neglecting correlation can introduce significant errors into the reliability computations. With a modest positive correlation between [8] and [$] the error can lead to a 100% overestimate of the probability of failure.