Electric Demand Growth: An Uncertain Future For Uranium ? Introduction

Broadly conceived, the demand for electricity depends upon three sets of variables: (i) the growths of the many individual demands for energy services; (ii) the competitiveness of electrically driven technologies in meeting these demands; and (iii) the energy-conversion efficiencies of installed electrical technologies. The first set of variables establishes the size of the potential market; the second, the market penetration of electrical equipment; and the third, the quantity of electricity required to operate the equipment. All forecasts of electricity consumption ultimately depend upon inferred or assumed relationships to describe the future behavior of these variables. This partitioning of the demand-forecasting problem is conceptually useful and will guide the discussion presented in this paper. However, it is also something of an oversimplification. Examined in more detail, the electricity fore-casting problem is exceedingly complex. The variables mentioned above are, in turn, found to depend upon more fundamental sets of demographic technological, resource, and policy variables. The demand projections developed by the major forecasting services are usually developed in terms of these underlying variables, which themselves must be independently forecast.