Embrace the Unknown; How to Incorporate Uncertainty in Mine Planning

"Mining companies have included quantifying uncertainty, or at least risk, as a requirement of project justification for many years. However, many times this process lags behind the traditional mine planning process and the results are rarely used to improve the plan. Nearly every parameter used in a mine plan is an estimate and the mine planning engineer should recognize, and even embrace, the inherent uncertainty in those parameters and its effect on their forecast results. While many of the uncertainties are beyond the scope of the traditional mine plan (e.g. global market uncertainty, socio-political uncertainty, environmental uncertainty), some uncertainties can, and should, be included in the mine planning process.Many mining engineers have incorporated techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation or Discrete Element Simulation to understand the range of productivity that can be expected for an operation, but most still rely upon one estimated model for what is likely the critical component of technical uncertainty, the geologic resource. Modern geostatistical methods can provide multiple orebody realizations to provide a thorough unbiased picture of the geologic uncertainty. However, most traditional mine planning techniques are not formulated to allow for multiple (100-200) realizations of each material quality/grade parameter.Commercial software companies and research groups are progressing with development of tools that can incorporate geologic uncertainty, and even optimize extraction plans in the uncertain environment. Unfortunately, this author believes that a significant number of mining operations will not be able to adopt these techniques due to the computational requirements of the advanced techniques and the costs associated with implementing proprietary software. In an attempt to encourage mining engineers to embrace the inherent uncertainty in their mine plans, this article presents a cost-effective alternative that can be developed in-house, at any mine, to schedule mid- to long-term mine plans while continuously monitoring the uncertainty in the results. The aim of this article is that by demonstrating the usefulness of such a system, mining companies will encourage engineers, geologists and geostatisticians to find ways to incorporate this powerful data into their processes and procedures."