Embrace the Unknown: Stop Saying “It’s too hard” and Start Embracing Uncertainty in your Mine Plans

"Nearly every input to a mine plan is based on an estimate. The estimates may be from sample data, historical information, models, or personal opinion, but in all cases, these values are simply expected values (means). In real life, we do not get to iterate the exact conditions at our mining operation many times to ensure that that average value is attained. The expected value also tells us nothing about the spread of values that that input might take on. The result is a significant amount of unquantified uncertainty in our mine plans. Unfortunately, it is often too expensive or time consuming to update planning processes and software. This paper presents a proof of concept spreadsheet scheduling tool that can be utilized to incorporate many geologic realizations (simulated models) into the mine scheduling process. While this POC is not intended to be a detailed model of uncertainty, it is to show that there are stepping stones available for mine planners to begin to embrace uncertainty and produce more achievable plans without requiring a significant change in their planning process. INTRODUCTION Mining companies have included quantifying uncertainty, or at least risk, as a requirement of project justification for many years, however many times this process lags behind the traditional mine planning process and the results are rarely used to improve the plan. Nearly every parameter used in a mine plan is an estimate and the mine planning engineer should recognize and even embrace the inherent uncertainty in those parameters and its effect on their forecast results. While many of the uncertainties are beyond the scope of the traditional mine plan (e.g. global market uncertainty, socio-political uncertainty, environmental uncertainty), some uncertainties can, and should, be included in the mine planning process. Many mining engineers have incorporated techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation or Discrete Element Simulation to understand the range of productivity that can be expected for an operation but most still rely upon one estimated model for what is likely the critical component of technical uncertainty, the geologic resource. Modern geostatistical methods can provide multiple ore body realizations to provide a thorough unbiased “picture” of the geologic uncertainty but most traditional mine planning techniques are not formulated to allow for multiple (100-200) realizations of each material quality/grade parameter. Commercial software companies and research groups are progressing with development of tools that can incorporate geologic uncertainty, and even optimize extraction plans in the uncertain environment. Unfortunately, this author believes that a significant number of mining operations will not be able to adopt these techniques due to the computational requirements of the advanced techniques and the costs associated with implementing proprietary software. In an attempt to encourage mining engineers to embrace the inherent uncertainty in their mine plans, this paper presents a cost-effective alternative that can be developed in-house, at any mine, to schedule mid to long-term mine plans while continuously monitoring the uncertainty in the results. The author hopes that by demonstrating the usefulness of such a system that mining companies will encourage engineers, geologists, and geostatisticians to find ways to incorporate this powerful data into their processes and procedures."