Energy Resources for Tomorrow

Introduction The urgency of further development of our domestic energy resources becomes more apparent every day. The production capability of existing facilities, taken in the aggregate, declines perhaps 10% per year; imported energy is expensive if available at all; conservation helps reduce demand but eventually will reach a point of diminishing return; new energy sources are promising but past experience, as with nuclear power, teaches us lead times are long and success is not assured. To approach the energy future rationally, it is essential to have some idea of the size of the nation's remaining energy resources, their characteristics, and the degree of uncertainty involved in their estimates. Resources are, of course, only one end of a long chain leading to energy supply to the ultimate consumer. They are an essential element, however, and the only one not under society's control. Given that the resources and a national will to produce the energy exist, it is possible to convert the resources to supply in, generally, an environmentally reasonable manner. However, the process of developing supply takes time. Government must permit access to the resource, and remunerative prices and further evolution of technlogy are required. This paper does not deal with these essentials, but they must not be forgotten. This discussion is limited to coal, oil, natural gas and gas liquids, uranium, and oil shale. Other energy sources are discussed elsewhere in this issue. Crude Oil Conventional crude oil resources are of greatest concern today, given our dependence on imported oil and its rapidly rising price. Estimates of oil originally in place (OOIP) range from 619 billion bbl to 1,094 billion bbl, differing by almost a factor of two (Table 1). This is surprising because the U.S. is a mature petroleum province with over 120 billion bbl produced and over 400 billion bbl OOIP discovered. Differences in the estimates involve differences in the experience of the various estimators, the interpretation of present geologic information and historical statistics, the methodology, and probably the extent (i.e., water depths) for which offshore resources are included. The range shown for the estimate of a given estimator appears to be primarily due to geologic uncertainty. This uncertainty can be measured by taking the ratio of the low and of the high estimate to the expected estimate for that information source. The low estimates range from 0.85 to 0.87 of their respective values. The high estimates range from 1.18 to 1.27 of the expected values. In all cases the high estimate is further from the expected value than the low,