Errors and Uncertainty in Ore Reserve Estimates ù Operator Beware

Ore Reserves are key mining company assets and their reliable estimation is crucial for both feasibility studies and the day to day operation of a mine. The reserve is based on the Mineral Resource after the application of certain technical and economic parameters. Engineering aspects of reserve estimation can be accurately determined to ¦10 per cent, however the majority of project risk will revolve around the resource. A final Ore Reserve generally contains a set of figures quoted without reference to its potential errors. Rarely are overall confidence limits quoted and, if they are, they often do not take into account many of the factors that cause uncertainty in the grade and tonnage estimates. There is thus an unquantifiable risk, which the operator should be aware of. This paper presents a review of the possible sources of error that might occur during the various phases of an exploration and estimation programme which are carried through into the Ore Reserve and hence mine design.