Estimation of Underground Mining Reserves Using Conditional Simulation: The Porgera Gold Deposit Papua New Guinea

Maps of mineral grade used to assess mineral reserves are most commonly generated using one of the many estimation methods available such as inverse distance weighting or ordinary kriging. Most such maps incorporate a degree of spatial smoothing which is an integral part of the averaging process. In deposits with highly variable grade which include many gold deposits, this smoothing can mask the detailed geometry of the mineralization at the economic cutoff grades being considered. In underground mining, a knowledge of this geometry is important in the choice of mining method and thus in the assessment of the minable reserves.The method of conditional simulation in geostatistics can be used to generate maps of grade which reflect the actual spatial variability of grade as measured through the variograms of the drill hole data. Simulated maps can provide a number of equiprobable images of the mineralization geometry from which a more appropriate mining model of the mineralization can be developed. Multiple simulations can also be used to assess the uncertainty existing in the current knowledge of the reserves.