Excess shear stress in the assessment of geologically hazardous situations

A high proportion of damaging rockbursts are thought to be underlain by seismic events that represent shear or rupture along planes of weakness (faults, joints, dyke contacts). Such events are controlled by shear stresses and friction properties along the plane. Excess shear stress (ESS) is a measure that can be evaluated numerically and that, in principle, can be used in an assessment of the possible magnitude and relative likelihood of seismic activity. Methods for the calculation of ESS in practical mining contexts, and for the estimation of the magnitudes of possible seismic event progressions, are briefly reviewed. The effects of variables such as depth, stoping width and, in particular, virgin horizontal stresses on general shear-type seismic hazards are investigated. Attempted back-analyses of two large rockbursts are described.