Forecasting Differential Rates Of Technical Progress In Surface And Underground Mining ? Introduction

The trend towards proportionately rising volumes of surface mining through- out the world and especially in the United States has led some observers to predict that the future of underground mining is quite limited. Certainly, the simple extrapolation of current trends1 gives evidence of a compelling sort for the hypothesis that technological progress is proceeding at a faster pace in surface than in underground mining. This paper attempts to examine the basis for these predictions by searching the historical record on differential rates of productivity as these are observed in iron ore and coal mining. In recent years economists have discussed "technology gaps" among industries or segments of the same industry, by which they mean that mechanisms for invention and its diffusion are faulty or retarded in such a way that feasible cost-cutting innovations are not applied or developed, even though technicians regard them as practical.2