Forecasting Rapid Excavation Demands In The Urban Sector

Since the report of the 1972 Rapid Excavation Conference in the city of Chicago, speculation has continued concerning the estimates of tunneling demand. Little has been published that would persuade me to modify substantially the rather tentative estimates that originated with the National Academy of Sciences-National Academy of Engineering (NAS-NAE) study of 1968 which were recomputed by the United States in the survey of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1970. The OECD estimates, of course, hedged the really difficult question of forecasting civil construction tunneling demands. In the United States contribution, this was done by predicting both an upper and lower bound for important categories of demand. A discounting procedure was then applied to each of the major sectors of expenditures, permitting a forecast that reflected the current subjective assessment of how extensively and how likely cities were to adopt plans that required tunneling. This was done for water, utilities, transportation and other novel underground facilities. The purpose of this paper is a modest one. In it I wish to describe the efforts made since 1972 to generate more thoughtful and more robust estimates of urban sector demands, and to apply what has been learned to the most difficult category of predictions: those for urban mass transit systems. The estimates of the Underground Construction Research Council funded by the National Science Foundation have been described at an earlier panel of this Conference. The principal effort I am familiar with is that of