Fourth-Quarter 1986 Economic Activity And First-Quarter 1987 Outlook - Fourth Quarter And 1986

Real2 gross national product (GNP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3% in the fourth quarter and at 2.5% for all of 1986, according to the most recent Department of Commerce estimates table 1). The 1986 GNP growth was the lowest since the recession in 1982, and was slightly below the estimate published in the last issue of Minerals and Materials. Barriers to greater economic growth in 1986 included the Federal budget deficit, the trade deficit, reduced energy-sector investment because of low oil prices, and uncertainty over changes in the Federal tax code.3 Major sectors of the economy responsible for the fourth-quarter growth included real Government purchases of goods and services, up $19.9 billion from the third-quarter level; real net exports, up $12.2 billion; real residential investment, up $3.0 billion; and nonresidential fixed investment, up $1.5 billion. The increase in Government purchases of goods and services was attributed to the S25.1 billion rise in net purchases of farm products by the Commodity Credit Corp-oration. Real personal consumption expenditures and inventory investment declined, however. Personal consumption expenditures declined primarily because of reduced motor vehicle purchases. Despite only modest growth during the fourth quarter, the economy improved significantly because of the narrowing of the trade deficit and growing employment (table 2) while maintaining low unemployment and inflation rates. Business sounded an optimistic note, with planned increases in current-dollar capital spending of 0.9% for 1987 compared with a 1.7% decrease in 1986. While it is primarily the nonmanufacturing industries that expect to increase investment from 1986 levels, some manufacturing industries are increasing investment by significant percentages as well, notably the steelmaking and nonferrous metals industries (table 3).