Further Discussion - Further Discussion on Water Gas Reservoirs: Uncertainty in Reserves Evaluation From Past History

The authors of this paper, in substituting values in a material balance equation associated with a gas reserve and a water drive, cannot find sustainment of what the gas in place should be; therefore, their conclusion is that this type of problem dealing with gas reservoirs is insoluble. They have introduced the word, "cybernetics," based on the work of Norbert Wiener, that further extends this line of reasoning, namely, to the effect that the system is a "black box", and that the gas reservoir and aquifer can take on infinite aspects 'based upon their past performance, to quote the authors. The inference is that this black box is an unknown. which permits in computer programming to subscribe as many variables as possible to observe by adjustment of one to another those combinations of conditions that fit field behavior. This may satisfy those in this discipline whose dedication is to programming, but to the others this is a comparison to the rationalization of the combinational results of the throwing of dice—a probability procedure. In reservoir engineering we are more direct. We learn from the examination of individual we'll and field data exactly what is in this black box. I now come to the impasse that has confronted these authors in their machine calculations. In this I have reproduced from their own production data (Tables 1 and 2 of their paper) pressure vs cumulative gas produced. shown as Figs. D-1 through D-5. A perusal of any of these five plots, for the corresponding fields in the Po Valley, shows the straight-line relation of pressure vs gas produced, evidencing pressure depletion. The point I make is that in their fundamental production data, there is no variance from a straight line that can support a water drive.