Future Economics Of Metal Production

AT the meeting of the Western Division of the American Mining Congress, held in Denver last September, papers were read by F. H. Brownell, a vice-president of the American Smelting and Refining Co. and chairman of its finance committee, and by H. Foster Bain, former director of the United States Bureau of Mines and now secretary of the A. I. M. E.. which dealt thoroughly with certain phases of my sub-ject. These addresses can hardly have failed to awaken serious reflection in all who listened to them; but their implications have apparently not penetrated the con-sciousness of bankers, economists and statesmen, whose business it is, or should be, to prepare for the economic and social changes which must inevitably follow, if the conclusions which I shall outline hereinafter are true. In discussing this subject I wish to disclaim any intention or desire to forecast the course of the metal markets or the immediate prospects of the mining in-dustry. The facts' adduced must inevitably influence the value of metals, the activity and profitableness of mining, and perhaps also the social status of those en-gaged in it. But my forecasts do not refer to this year, next, year, or the year after. The nearest ap-proach to a date on which I will venture is that the relative scarcity of gold may begin to make itself felt in something like ten years from now, but its effect will not culminate for several years thereafter. Scarcity of new gold is likely to be offset, to some extent, by increasing use of currencies based on credit; but unless it is found possible to dispense with the gold standard altogether, this can hardly prevent a great ultimate fall in commodity prices. This fall, moreover, is likely to be more severe in manufactured goods than in what are, popularly termed raw ma-terials; and most of all in those manufactured goods which are susceptible to the greatest degree to cheapen-ing by mass production, and which are least counter-affected by increasing metal prices; by which I mean those in which the cost of metal contained forms a relatively small, element in the total cost of production.