Geographical Aspects of the Mineral Equation

We often read and hear, especially in the United States, that we are running out of critical metals. These are vague forebodings of stagna- tion or winding down of our civilization. Our technological progress has been rapid in the last 50 years and is still advancing at an accelerated rate, and predictions of its long-term impact on consumption and production of metals are more hazardous than ever in the light of the great economic and political shifts that are bound to continue. There are many factors that will have a hardly predictable but profound effect on pro- duction and consumption of metals over a time span of, say, 25 years. Among such factors are recycling, substitution, availability of capital, direct involvement of governments in financing and production, and the capability of producing much lower grade ores at possibly much higher prices relative to costs in the event of scarcity. I must state at the outset that my discussion of this topic does not take into account the role that deep-sea nodules containing copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese may play, because I don't believe production from these deposits will be of much significance within the 25 year span I will be discussing.