Geologic Model For A Tunnel Cost Model

1. INTRODUCTION The Tunnel Cost Model (TCM) is a computer based model whose objective is to quantify the risks of hard rock tunneling in terms of cost and time to completion. The main feature of the TCM is the simulation of the tunnel construction. The simulation makes it possible to incorporate in the time and cost computations the effect of uncertainties in geologic conditions and in productivity rates and costs. The cost and time computed with the TCM will be in form of distributions that allow a quantitative risk assessment. The TCM will be useful as an estimating tool permitting the estimator to rigorously relate uncertainties of individual factors to the end result. The TCM will also make it possible to evaluate technological innovations and to identify problem areas in existing technologies. The TCM consists of three interacting submodels: the geologic submodel, the construction operations submodel and the tunnel simulator. The goal of this paper is to describe the geologic submodel, whereas the construction operations submodel and the tunnel simulator will be described in the following paper by Moavenzadeh et al. First it will be shown how interactions between the geologic submodel and other parts of the TCM will impose certain requirements on the geologic submodel. These requirements, which relate primarily to the description of geologic conditions by a set of problem-oriented parameters and the quantification of uncertainty associated with geologic conditions, will then be discussed. This is followed by the description of the special structuring techniques -- decision tree and segmentation -- that are necessary to handle the great number of